Day 16 HCG levels study - Tong, Wallace and Rombauts (1996)
1 Replies
siobhan1980 - May 3

Hi everyone

I wanted to clarify an old thread from here that still comes up in google search because I think it is important to clarify the results of this research. I’m not a major nerd (maybe I am?) but I am studying statistics and I also know what it is like to desperately search out information on this stuff.

I have a full copy of this article as I was interested in this issue after my first cycle.

The original poster got a bit confused with the statistics and the results are actually much different to those represented, so I just don’t want people to find this reference and get confused.

Women were not put into a low and high group of 157-211 and 213-233. Those numbers are confidence intervals, which is a statistical tool used to calculate the certainty that two means are not from the same population.

The important bit to know is that at day 16, women with a HCG of 0-100 had roughly 21-12% chance of miscarriage, women with a HCG of 125-311 had a 12.4 - 7.3% chance of miscarriage and 313-385 yielded a miscarriage rate of 11.1- 4.6%.

As you can see, it is a sliding scale so for example if you had day 16 HCG of 150 your MC chances would be around 11.5%.

Age was found to have a significant effect between pregnancy and miscarriage groups so women who were younger with a lower HCG on day 16 were less likely to miscarry than older women with the same HCG.

And the mean MC rate across all women in the study was found to be 11.1%.

Another important thing to note is that this study was only conducted with women whose baby had a heartbeat at around week 7 or 8. So presumably these statistics only apply once you get past your heartbeat scan.

Good luck to everyone!

PS: If you are really interested just search online for a full copy of the study in the Journal of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists- Feb 2006.


siobhan1980 - May 3

Sorry that should say 0-124 HCG = 12.4 - 7.3% MC risk.



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