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BekyVice - February 15th, 2007 1:56 PM

Hello, everyone. It's "Miss Research" here to share some valuable info I've learned about HcG levels that I was desperate to have when I was going through this (and still am!). To know me is to know that I have to have answers to everything, and will stop at nothing to get them! Thank goodness for the Internet and for amazing doctors like Dr. Smith and Dr. Jane.

Okay, onto what I found out. I wanted to know about chances for a baby going to full term with whatever HcG levels our first BFPs gave us after the 2WW, and this is what I found. If Dr. Smith would like to confirm/deny these findings, I'd LOVE to hear his comments and will gladly defer to him. Here goes, and I'll quote the article from Obstetrics & Gynecology 2006:

"OBJECTIVE: To investigate an association between low human gonadotrophin (HcG) levels at the end of the first week of implantation and later clinical miscarriage occurring after ultrasound of confirmation of a live pregnancy.

METHOD [condensed]: Observed 1,054 women who underwent IVF and achieved an ultrasound-confirmed live singleton pregnancy with heartbeat. The HcG level was tested at day 16 post conception (which is day 13p3dt or day 11p5dt). These women were put into 3 groups: those in the low percentile of HcG levels, those in the median percentile of HcG levels, and those in the high percentile. Miscarriage was diagnosed at 8-19 weeks (median = 10 weeks, 4 days).

RESULTS: The overall incidence of miscarriage was 11.1%. The percentiles considered "low" were those who had HcG levels of 157-211 (median = 182) at the stated testing time (above). The percentiles considered "high" were those who had HcG levels of 213-233 at this same time (median = 223). At the low levels, 17% of the women miscarried. At the high levels, only 8% miscarried.

CONCLUSION: Low HcG levels in very early pregnancy are associated with an increased risk of miscarriage occurring after the clinical recognition of pregnancy. The underlying mechanisms of late first-semester and second-trimester miscarriage may have begun as early as the first week of implanation."

So, there you have it. Naturally, my first blood test showed 129 HcG levels at 11dp5dt, so I'm hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.

Hope this helps!

ple - February 15th, 2007 3:53 PM

Thank you for doing the research. I can honestly say that I am really nervous now. My first HCG test was done on day 14, not 16, and it was only 15!!!!! My second test, two days later, was 45 and two days after that it was 143. I have another test tomorrow. I was reassured that the fact that the number doubled the first time and more than trippled the second time, was a good thing/sign. But now I see, according to what you've read, there is good reason to be more nervous than I was before! I will have a chat with my doctor tomorrow, maybe he will have some reassuring news for me. UGH, this IS a crazy ride!!!

Thank you again for the research. It is almost as if you've read my mind!

destinybaby - February 15th, 2007 5:32 PM

Hi Zoe and Ple,

I am very excited for both of you. Zoe great research. However, I did some reading on the ART board under 1st time IVF and there is a woman on that board who I truly respect and her HCG test was 10 then it jumped to 40 and she was so worried, the it went to 12... plus and her nurse was not too hopeful now she is very pregnant so ladies, please don't worry. Just stay positve.

You can go to that board and read on her journey her login name is fortyfourfive. you may also see on the pregnancy after infertility board as well. I am sure she would not mind giving you comfort.

Don't forget stay positive. Baby Dust To All

I hope this helps.

Tia

ple - February 15th, 2007 5:53 PM

Thanks Tia, that is why these message boards are so helpful... you get to hear all different sides of the stories! After I had read this initially, I emailed my RE (love him!) and he reassured me that my levels are going up and as long as they do, to continue to be positive. He reminded me that my first test was on day 14 which seems to be a couple days earlier than most. Poor doctors, having to deal with the psychotic-ness of anxious women!

Seems like I need to read fortyfourfive's boards, to feel a little better. Again, Zoe, thank you for research, just trying to see the positive in every little thing!

Staying POSITIVE!! Got to!

BekyVice - February 15th, 2007 6:49 PM

Oh, I'm sooooo sorry for putting a damper on things for you! Not my intent WHATSOEVER. I'm more a "realist" and hope for the best, but expect sorta the worst. That way I'm not devastated. But... my "research" came about because I've read oh so many posts that say "What do my HcG levels mean?" etc. I should have kept going and said, "But... your case COULD BE FINE!" Also, I should have enclosed this fun HcG doubling chart. From what I've read and been told, starting HcG at any level is just the first piece of the puzzle. The doubling factor tells the bigger picture.

Check out this HcG level doubling chart and have fun with it. Check out the other tabs to see where you can add your statistics once you get a heartbeat. Once you see this chart you'll INDEED see that you can be pregnant and carry a perfectly good baby with single digit initial HcG levels!

http://www.be
tabase.info/doublingCalc.php

JLK - February 15th, 2007 7:24 PM

PLE - You and I were corresponding with one another during the 2ww. Oddly enough, I'm also having hcg issues. I think I had my beta one day before you. My initial level was 100. I went back 5 days later - 2/12 - and it had dropped to 30. I went back the next day just to be sure there was no lab error and it jumped back up to 60. They told me to come in today - 2/15 - and it had doubled to 122. Everything I have read said that the importance is the doubling which mine appears to be trying to do. Unfortunately, my RE was not optimistic at all. He really didn't give me a reason - maybe it's because the numbers are low or he doesn't want to get my hopes up. I was initially told that they feel very good about an initial beta level of over 100, though lower numbers are not necessarily a sign of trouble. Looks like you are consistently doubling every day so I wish you the best of luck. I hope we both get through this!!! JLK

cb38 - February 15th, 2007 8:21 PM

I'm going through my second round of Beta Stress (uggggghhhh) right now. Had a chemical pregnancy in December (that sucked) but now doing semi-OK after a FET (PGD) 2 blastocyst transfer on Jan 30th. First ultrasound (5 1/2 weeks) is next week and hoping for the best...

Anyway, theres lots of junk out there on the internet but here is another good beta site:

http://web.archive.org/web/2006042
1160654/http:/www.ivfer.com/hcg.htm
>

trueblue02 - February 17th, 2007 11:32 AM

Hi i'm new at this and don't really know what to do ??? I have undergone three ivf. the third one, now on the 3.2.2007 resulted on day 10 the hcg level of 11 and on day 14 the hcg level of 21! I don't know what to make of it, especially that the doctor asked for a 3rd test in three days. I'm so scared of misscarrying and worse of all not know what's going on as my doctor is dealing with me on a need to know basis, which isn't much at this point.....................so please save me and let me know what you think. :-*

ple - February 19th, 2007 11:49 AM

JLK, yes we were corresponding earlier. Good to hear from you again. Sounds as if you might be on the right track now with the numbers doubling. Did your RE say something to you make you think that you shouldn't be optimistic, or do you just get the feeling that he isn't being optimistic? I ask because, I think these doctors have to stay neutral with their feelings because they don't want to give any impression, in the case that they may be wrong about something. I was told by one of the nurses that my RE doesn't get too excited about things until the first ultrasound. Which makes sense to me.

My last HCG test was on Friday and the numbers are continuing to go up (from 141 on Tuesday to 567 on Friday). I scheduled my first US for 2/27. I am nervous, and will be for the next month or so, until I am out of the "danger zone". We'll get through this. Please keep me posted with your results. It is good to compare our stories.

Trueblue02, seems like they tested your levels pretty early, day 10, which is why the initial level was low, but a HCG of 21 on day 14 isn't bad, highter than mine was on day 14, mine was only 15. And so far, things are progressing nicely. As I am sure they will for you, too. So you must have your next test tomorrow? Good luck. It will happen for you!


trueblue02 - February 19th, 2007 12:22 PM

thanks dear PLe
Ya my test is tomorrow and i think I'm going to drive every one around me crazy. Your words of support give me a lot of hope.
I wish you all the best as well. I remember when I was pregnant with my son 5 1/2 years ago (Naturally) I was very stressed as being a type 1 Diabetic also. It's etra effort but wearth it. If you have any questions, maybe I can help as well to put your mind at rest.
xoxoxo
Dalilah

ple - February 19th, 2007 12:27 PM

trueblue, I can't believe you are a type 1 diabetic!! I was hoping someone would pop up! Are you on a pump? I do have questions. Can I email you seperately so we don't bore others?

trueblue02 - February 19th, 2007 2:21 PM

ple. sent you an instant message with my email address. I don't use the pump but the pen system. Still any question you may have, love to help.

cschroth - October 19th, 2010 12:27 PM

This is from a nervous gradma to be. Daughter had first hcg after 2ww with ivf. They used 2 5day blasts. Her firts hcg is 780 going back for more labs in two days. Any thoughts?

siobhan1980 - May 3rd, 2011 2:18 AM

Hi everyone

I know this is an old thread but it still comes up in google search results so I thought it was important for me to get online to clarify the results of this research. I’m not a major nerd (maybe I am?) but I am studying statistics and I know what it is like to desperately search out information on this stuff.

I have a full copy of this article as I too was interested in this issue after my first cycle.

The original poster got a bit confused with the statistics and the results are actually much different to those represented, so I just don’t want people to find this reference and get confused.

Women were not put into a low and high group of 157-211 and 213-233. Those numbers are confidence intervals, which is a statistical tool used to calculate the certainty that two means are not from the same population.

The important bit to know is that at day 16, women with a HCG of 0-100 had roughly 21-12% chance of miscarriage, women with a HCG of 125-311 had a 12.4 - 7.3% chance of miscarriage and 313-385 yielded a miscarriage rate of 11.1- 4.6%.

As you can see, it is a sliding scale so for example if you had day 16 HCG of 150 your MC chances would be around 11.5%.

Age was found to have a significant effect between pregnancy and miscarriage groups so women who were younger with a lower HCG on day 16 were less likely to miscarry than older women with the same HCG.

And the mean MC rate across all women in the study was found to be 11.1%.

Another important thing to note is that this study was only conducted with women whose baby had a heartbeat at around week 7 or 8. So presumably these statistics only apply once you get past your heartbeat scan.

Good luck to everyone!

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