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You suspicion is correct. With only a single 2-cell embryo transferred, your chances are rather low. The doctor was afraid the embryo did not have the correct genetic instructions for continued development and bailed out for a Day 2 transfer. The grade 1 "minus" refers to a small amount of celluar fragmentation - which is probably of no consequence to embryo development. Your chances are slim, but not zero. Hang in there.
You need to investigate why only one egg was retrieved (assuming your were expecting more). However, be advised that as you age, a higher and higher proportion of the follicles do not contain a viable egg and in many cases, no egg at all. If you are over 40, you can expect around half of the follicles will fail to yield an egg.
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